About a month ago, we published an article outlining the possibility of bowling centers in the Northeastern United States reopening June 15th and at the time, it seemed like a somewhat realistic, yet optimistic, possibility. The question is, now that we're in the middle of May, does that possibility still seem realistic? The answer may not be what you want to hear.
Earlier this month, Governor Andrew Cuomo outlined a 7-step process toward reopening. All 7 steps must be met before a city can reopen without restriction, according to Cuomo. The 7 steps outlined were:
- 14-day decline in hospitalizations or under 15 new hospitalizations (3 day average)
- 14-day decline in hospital deaths or fewer than 5 deaths (3 day average)
- New Hospitalizations (under 2 per 100K residents - 3-day rolling average)
- Share of total beds available (threshold of 30%)
- Share of ICU beds available (threshold of 30%)
- 30 per 1K residents tested monthly (7 day average)
- At least 30 contact tracers per 100K residents
And here is where each section of New York stands in relation to these steps:
As you can see by the above image, 5 regions have five of the metrics met, while NYC currently stands at only 3. And while the current "New York on PAUSE" status remains in effect through May 15th, Cuomo has recently extended the state of emergency status until June 6th, which means Cuomo signed an affidavit giving himself the authority to extend the current PAUSE until that date.
Assuming that the current PAUSE stays at May 15th, that would not necessarily mean (nor would it be probable at all) NYC can begin Phase I of the outlined reopening plan. And as it currently stands, even if the May 15th date stayed firm, it seems that only a few select, upstate regions would be able to reopen. So once again, let's assume (for the sake of this article) that NYC begins Phase I of their reopening plan on June 6th (which is a VERY optimistic assumption). Assuming that everything goes according to plan, with 2-week intervals between each phase, Phase IV, which is when entertainment venues can begin reopening, wouldn't start until July 18th at the earliest. And if we push back each phase just one week, we're now into early August for Phase IV, which would mean bowling centers quite possibly could reopen . . . by the time the fall 2020-2021 season begins.
Here are the current reopening phases outlined:
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Phase I - will allow construction, manufacturing, wholesale supply chain businesses to reopen, as well as some retailers for curbside pickup.
With regards to retail, many nonessential businesses throughout the state have already been offering curbside pickup. Businesses that cannot offer that, like retailers inside shopping malls, will not be eligible to reopen.
After two weeks, state and regional officials will evaluate the outcomes of the reopening and decide whether or not the region can move onto the next phase.
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Phase II - will allow a wider range of businesses to reopen, including storefront retailers and businesses in the professional services, finance and insurance, administrative support, and real-estate and rental-leasing industries.
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Phase III - will focus on the hospitality industry, allowing restaurants and other food-service businesses to reopen for dine-in service, as well as hotels — which are already considered essential businesses and are allowed to serve overnight guests, but this phase will likely mean they will be able to reopen their dine-in restaurants, spas, and gyms.
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Phase IV (bowling centers included) - the final phase, will allow schools, and arts, entertainment, and recreation businesses to reopen — including theaters, movie theaters, and other entertainment venues, as well as museums and other artistic institutions.
At this point, it's becoming clear that June 15th basically has no chance of being met and a more realistic approach would suggest that August 15th be a more appropriate timeline for bowling centers reopening in NYC (and Long Island and New Jersey as well). Mask and shield debates aside, it seems we're not close to being out of the woods yet. Get comfortable for now . . . and let's hope everything goes according to plan . . . or we may have a lot more to worry about than just bowling leagues.
